Throughout 2024, one of the recurring themes we kept hearing in the news cycle, was about the rapid population growth that Alberta was experiencing. This rapid growth has been attributed to a number of factors, including job opportunities, affordable housing, and relatively low cost of living. As the new year begins, it’s worth examining how this influx of newcomers in the Edmonton region is shaping employment trends.
The Edmonton Region often garners attention for its unemployment rate, which is among the highest of any Canadian city. As shown in Figure 1, unemployment spiked following COVID-19 and has continued to remain relatively high for the Edmonton Region when compared to our peer cities. However, it’s important to realize that despite the headlines, the news isn’t all negative. In fact, numbers have recently improved, with a 1.6% decrease since September–three consecutive months of declines.
Figure 1.
However, unemployment isn’t the only metric that matters. Higher population growth often correlates with higher unemployment. As mentioned, the Edmonton Region, one of Canada’s fastest-growing areas, exemplifies this dynamic. Sometimes, the labour market needs time to adjust to the increase in population.
With this in mind, another metric which really matters is looking at total employment. When we consider this data, the picture for the Edmonton Region is much rosier (Figure 2).
Figure 2.
In absolute terms, since December 2020, Edmonton has seen greater job growth than both Calgary and Ottawa (Figure 3).
Figure 3.
Similarly, the Edmonton Region’s labour force has expanded more than any other Canadian city except the three largest metro regions (Figure 4).
Figure 4.
This becomes even more interesting when we consider the fact that these other regions have a significantly larger working-age population than the Edmonton Region has (Figure 5).
Figure 5.
If we take a look at the average annual employment growth rate over the same period, the Edmonton Region is ahead of every city in Canada with a population of over a million people (Figure 6).
Figure 6.
Looking ahead, the outlook remains bright. The National Bank of Canada projects Alberta will trail only Prince Edward Island in employment growth this year (Figure 7).
Figure 7.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board of Canada predicts the Edmonton region will lead Western Canada in job creation this year and next (Figure 8).
Figure 8.
Key sectors driving this growth include (Figure 9):
The Region is expected to gain jobs across almost every sector.
Figure 9.
While the manufacturing sector is projected to lose 1,500 jobs by 2028, these losses will be offset by gains across almost every other sector (Figure 10).
Figure 10.
Fastest-growing sectors include:
Figure 11.
The biggest takeaway I want to leave with my readers is that employment opportunities in the Edmonton Region remain strong. When we look at the data, it’s clear that job growth is keeping pace with the region’s rapid population increase. Analysts continue to forecast continued job growth across diverse sectors. Indeed, it’s an exciting time for the Edmonton Region – we’re growing quickly and continue to be a thriving hub of economic opportunity.
Jeff Bell is the Director of Research and Business Intelligence at Edmonton Global. His knowledge is a mile wide and an inch deep – and when a question arises, he enjoys digging deep into the data to provide solid defensible research that can inform strategy. Reach out to Jeff if you know of an innovative business that should be tied into his network.
